Grits
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
August 15, 2008 — Kentucky: McConnell Lengthens Lead; McCain Strong Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) has a 52% to 40% lead over Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) in the latest SurveyUSA poll, taken earlier this month for WHAS-TV. McConnell’s 12-point margin is significantly higher than his 4-point lead in the same firm’s survey taken eight weeks ago. In the presidential race, John McCain has 55%, Barack Obama 37%. McCain led throughout the state except in Louisville and environs, where Obama had a 4-point lead. Louisiana: Carmouche Leads in his Poll; Fleming Leads GOPers A survey taken for Democratic congressional candidate Paul Carmouche in Louisiana’s 4th District (Shreveport, etc.) shows him leading each of the three Republicans running by a minimum of 13 points to a high of 19 points. The poll was taken by the Kitchens Group July 16-21. The campaign did not release the head-to-head breakdowns. On the GOP side, the Kitchens’ poll, as well as a Southern Media and Opinion Research survey taken for Republican physician John Fleming, show Fleming in first place in the September 6 Republican Primary. In the Kitchens’ survey, Fleming led with 27% to businessman (trucking) Chris Gorman’s 20% and ex-chamber of commerce official Jeff Thompson’s 14%. In the Southern Media poll, Fleming led with 43% to Gorman’s 17% and Thompson’s 15%. The race is for the congressional seat being vacated by eleven-term US Rep. Jim McCrery (R), who has endorsed Thompson. Registration Trends Continue to Favor Democrats Recently released voter registration numbers in three states show a strong increase in the number of Democrats, African Americans, and young people who are qualifying to vote this November. All three (overlapping) groups favor Barack Obama. ● Kentucky: Since 1989, the Democrat’s share of Kentucky’s registered voters has steadily declined, from 67.6% to 56.9% in 2007. That may be about to change, however. According to the Lexington Herald-Leader, Blue Grass registration figures through July 15 show the Democrats reversed the trend, rising to 57.3%. From November 2007 to mid-July, the Democrats added 30,554 new voters, the Republicans 5,470. ● North Carolina: Black voter registration has increased about 9.8% over November 2004. White registration increased 4.6%, less than half the rate of black registration. However, black voters remain at 20% of the total registration, to 75% for whites, about the same as in 2004. ● Virginia: Since January, more than 200,000 new voters have registered and 64% of them are 35 years old or younger. Senate Set to Apologize for Slavery The betting is that when Congress reconvenes in September, it will pass a resolution apologizing for the enslavement of African Americans. The House passed a similar measure earlier this month, sponsored by US Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN). While there may be disagreements over details -- such as the measure’s relationship to possible reparations legislation -- the apology is expected to pass handily. Kentucky: Bunning, Grayson Plan Ahead Two-term US Sen. Jim Bunning (R), 79, put to rest rumors that he might seek Kentucky’s governorship in 2011, telling the Lexington Herald-Leader that he planned to seek re-election to the Senate in 2010. That leaves a clearer path for Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) to make a decision about his future, and he’s now saying he’ll consider running for governor if Bunning sticks to the Senate race. |
