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Democrats Eye Gains in Virginia Congressional Races

August 20, 2008 — In a political year in which once-solidly Republican Virginia has become the South’s top battleground state between John McCain and Barack Obama, Old Dominion Democrats, as well as those in Washington, DC, are hoping to gain one or possibly more new congressional seats. The latest presidential poll in Virginia, taken by InsiderAdvantage/

Poll Position, showed Obama and McCain with 43% each -- in a state that hasn’t gone for the Democratic presidential nominee since 1964. Moreover, voter registration for young people and for African Americans have been increasing at a fast pace, and in the party primaries earlier this year, more voters chose to participate in the Democratic contests than in the Republican ones.

Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, tells SPR that the 11^th District is the Democrats’ “most likely pickup.” He adds, however, “If things really tilt Democratic, there could be a surprise in the 2^nd or the 5^th.”

Here, in order of the Democrats’ chances, are details on the four Republican districts in Virginia that are host to competitive congressional races.

11^th District (Fairfax County, etc.)

Gerry Connolly (D), chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Commissioners, is the favorite to defeat wealthy businessman (property inspection) Keith Fimian (R) for this open seat being vacated by influential US Rep. Tom Davis (R). At mid-year, Connolly was way behind in the money-chase -- $275,000 on hand to Fimian’s $1,039,000 -- but Connolly financed a victory in an expensive primary. He’s likely to show much more cash in the next report. Moreover, his name is already well-known in the district from his years in local politics. Fimian has never held elective office before, and will have an uphill battle becoming a known quantity; however, he does have the (personal) funds to wage a strong media campaign. In 2004, Bush beat Kerry by a slim 50% to 49%. Leans Democratic.

2^nd District (Virginia Beach, etc.)

US Rep. Thelma Drake (R), running for re-election as a freshman in 2006, won a minimal 51% victory. But many folks thought she would lose it, and she showed impressive mettle in a hard-fought campaign. A veteran of state legislative politics, Drake is well-known in the district and is on top of the military/veterans affairs issues that are important in this naval base-laden area. The Democratic challenger, former diplomat Glenn Nye, is a native of Norfolk, but at 33, has spent most of his adult life away from here, most often serving in foreign countries, including such hot-spots as Iraq, Afghanistan and Kosovo. He’s never sought elective office and is basically unknown to the voters; however, he’s also conversant with foreign and military affairs, and also speaks knowledgeably about these issues. Nye has proven an adept fundraiser and in the 2^nd Quarter reports, had a respectable $409,000 on hand to Drake’s $682,000. Nye could also benefit from coattails from the US Senate race, in which former Gov. Mark Warner (D) is a heavy favorite. Nye is definitely the underdog, but watch this one. Leans Republican.

5^th District (Charlottesville, etc.)

Six-term US Rep. Virgil Goode (R), a maverick conservative, is getting the strongest challenge of his congressional career. Human rights attorney Tom Perriello is not only aggressively going after Goode on his voting record, especially on economic issues, but he’s raising enough money to get folks to notice: $520,000 at mid-year to Goode’s $834,000. Moreover, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has gotten behind Perriello’s campaign, putting the district in its “Red to Blue” program. While Perriello has united the Charlottesville liberal/academic community behind his candidacy, Sabato, who lives in the district, says, “Two-thirds of the voters are not friendly to him, in the Southern part of the district along the North Carolina line.” These voters are mostly Republican, as are the 56% district-wide who voted for Bush in 2004. Leans Republican.

10^th District (McLean, etc.)