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Veep picks could have lasting effects on parties

August 20, 2008 — This vice-presidential pick that Illinois Senator Barack Obama and Arizona Senator John McCain will soon make won't just be important for this particular election. It may alter party dynamics for the next three or four decades, if this is indeed a "critical election," where key groups may engage in the politics of realignment.

The concept of "critical" elections was conceived by political scientist Walter Dean Burnham, now a professor emeritus at the University of Texas at Austin, and an election expert. In 1970, his book Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics, Burnham noted that in a few "critical elections" an identity group realigns itself with a new political party.

In subsequent (less significant) elections, the party picking up the new group "runs the table" winning the overwhelming majority of elections over the next 30-40 years. We've seen it happen in 1932, when African-Americans deserted "the party of Lincoln" for the party of the New Deal. Again, one occurred in 1968 as southern white males deserted the Democratic Party over civil rights legislation.

The last few elections have been relatively close affairs, decided by a handful of states in the Electoral College, separated by only a few percentage points in popular polls. It's been nearly 40 years since we had a critical election, so we are due for one this year.

Such a vice-presidential pick could not only prompt this realignment, but it could also set the electoral trend for the next 30-40 years. Here are a few examples how:

First, say McCain selects Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman. He could pull Jewish voters (roughly 80% of them backed Kerry in 2004) to the Republican Party. He would also snare some conservative Democrats, ensuring a GOP lock on the Presidency for the next few decades.

Second, say Obama picks Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. He might reverse his party's Catholic defections (including Bush's narrow win of the Catholics in 2004).

There are a host of other scenarios. A selection of Maine Senator Susan Collins or Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney might enable the GOP to rebuild their shattered northeast Republican base. If Obama chooses Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius or New York Senator Hillary Clinton, he might bring Republican women into the Democratic Party in a way that would enable his party to win a majority of future elections.

McCain's choice of Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal might deliver the Asian-American vote to the GOP the same way Obama's choice of New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson might overcome Bush's gains with Hispanics in the last two elections. Regardless of who is chosen, both candidates would do well to pick a VP who might trigger such a critical election realignment, because failure to do so might generate consequences that would reverberate over the next half of this century.