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Latest population estimate signals tense round of Congressional musical chairs

December 24, 2009 —

The last US Census Bureau estimate of population changes before the actual count is taken next year contains some good news and bad news for the South – and a certain amount of suspense.

With the latest numbers, South Carolina joins Florida and Georgia as Southern states which are expected to gain a new congressional seat in the next round of reapportionment. That’s good news for the Palmetto State, not so good for Florida, which earlier in the decade – before the real estate bust, that is – had been expecting to gain two or three seats in the next decade. Another state with reason to be disappointed in the new data is North Carolina, which in previous population estimates appeared to be on track to gain a seat.

The big winner continues to be Texas, which is on track to gain three or four seats.

The only Southern state headed toward the loss of a seat is Louisiana, still coping with the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, as well as the youth drain which Gov. Bobby Jindal talked about in both his races for governor.

The data released this week by the Census Bureau estimate the U.S. population for July 1, 2009, nine months before Census Day next April 1. But according to Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, a political consulting firm which specializes in redistricting analysis, there are trends in the new data that “point toward more twists in population growth” in the remaining months, which could lead to a “variety of potential scenarios by the time apportionment happens in 2010.” The competition for congressional seats is “extremely close,” Brace says, with 16 states competing for the last six seats in the 435-seat House of Representatives.

Among the questions still in doubt:

--    Texas has “probably a better than even shot” at gaining a fourth seat, Brace said, but its robust growth in this decade has slacked a bit with the latest numbers. Even if it has to settle for three new House seats, Texas will be the biggest gainer not only in the region, but the nation.

--    While Florida once looked to be the other big winner in the region, Brace now estimates it will be “lucky” to gain just one seat, “and even that one may be close.

--    Although South Carolina appears to have gained enough to pick up a new seat, Brace says it only has about 15,000 to 20,000 residents to spare in this extremely tight competition. State officials often make pronouncements about the importance of getting a full count, but this is especially true in South Carolina’s case. Problems around Census Day leading to an incomplete count “could be enough to take that seat away,” Brace said.

In general, the latest estimate continues the decades-long trend of population shifts to the South and West. The eight states gaining seats are all in the South or West, and with the exception of Louisiana, the nine states losing seats are in the Midwest and Northeast. Ohio is looking like the biggest loser, with the projected loss of two seats.

But that may not always be the case. While they will continue to gain strength in Congress, these latest estimates show that growth in the Southern and Western states has slowed dramatically since the onset of the recession.

Another of the unsettled questions left by the most current data is California, which will likely remain unchanged, but does have the possibility of losing a seat for the first time in its history.

And while Iowa is on track to lose a seat next year, it’s part of a cluster Midwestern states, along with North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska, which appear to have gained population relative to the rest of the country in the latest estimate, Brace said.

These demographic “twists” may only be a function of the economy, and may again if and when the economy recovers. But if not, we may be hearing speculation in the next decade over whether the Sunbelt boom has at last run its course.

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