Huckabee leads for GOP
Second-choice preferences put Democrats in virtual dead heat in Iowa
Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff
January 3, 2008 — Barack Obama has a razor-thin lead over John Edwards and Hillary Clinton heading into tonight's Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses.
Our latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll asked:
“If the vote for the Democratic nominee for president were held today, would you vote for:”
Barack Obama (34%)
John Edwards (33%)
Hillary Clinton (32%)
The poll was conducted Jan. 2 among 415 likely participants in the Iowa Democratic caucuses. The poll measures the final results after second choice preferences were factored in. The margin of error is plus or minus 5%. The data have been weighted for age and gender.
On the Republican side, we asked:
“If the vote for the Republican nominee for president were held today, would you vote for:”
Mike Huckabee (30%)
Mitt Romney (24%)
Fred Thompson (11%)
John McCain (11%)
Ron Paul (7%)
Rudy Giuliani (5%)
Duncan Hunter (1%)
The poll was conducted Jan. 1 among 430 likely participants in the Iowa Republican caucuses. The margin of error is plus or minus 5%. The data have been weighted for age and gender.
InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery commented from Tampa, Fla., where today he is speaking to the USA Round Table, a gathering of Chamber of Commerce executives from around the nation.
Towery: “This Democratic poll accounts for the second preferences of caucus participants whose first choices will not make the required 15% threshold after the first votes are tallied.
“Until Wednesday night, our polling of this race has consistently shown John Edwards enjoying a majority of these second-preference choices.
“In my judgment, the Des Moines Register’s poll has changed the dynamics of the race. We saw a rapid spike in support for Barack Obama immediately after the Register’s poll was released to so much fanfare and acclaim. The second choice preferences in our final poll became an even split between Obama and Edwards.
“There’s no doubt in my mind that the Register’s poll is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Towery.
“The big story tonight on the Democratic side will be Edwards’ strong performance, which isn’t reflected in the Register’s poll.
“Finally on the Democratic race, I’ll add that a sample of all voters in Iowa, which included the demographics of party affiliation – including independents – does not support the concept that the caucuses will be made up of 40% independents. The actual number is lower,” he said.
Matt Towery: “The numbers consistently point to a Mike Huckabee victory. However, as someone who has been involved predominantly on the GOP side of things since 1980, I wouldn’t discount the organization and money the Romney team has at its disposal. That in itself could make for a very tight race, or even a Romney victory,” he said.