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McCain, Clinton lead in InsiderAdvantage Alabama poll

By Gary Reese

February 1, 2008There’s a statistical tie in the Republican presidential primary race in Alabama, but Mitt Romney is not a part of it. And the Democrats could have a photo finish on their hands in that state.  Our latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll showed this on the GOP side:  John McCain (37%)Mike Huckabee (35%)Mitt Romney (14%)Ron Paul (5%)Other (1%)Undecided (8%) The poll sampled 566 likely voters in the Feb. 5 Alabama Republican primary, for a margin of error of plus or minus 4%. It was conducted Jan. 31. The data have been weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation. The split among hard conservative voters between Romney and Huckabee has McCain in the catbird’s seat, just as in most states. The difference in Alabama is that the Huckabee-Romney split is a lot of Huckabee support, and little for Romney.  In Georgia, Romney and Huckabee are tied for second behind McCain. Clearly, rural white conservatives are not identifying with the blue-blooded Romney. A Huckabee win in Alabama would serve McCain almost as well as a McCain victory. Either way, Romney would be frustrated once again, and with time running down.   The former Massachusetts governor is trying to get out the message that conservative voters need to unite against McCain, but – even with his overstuffed bank account – he probably can’t put out the word fast enough to make a difference by Super Tuesday.  Certainly not in Alabama. The Democrats have a race on their hands too. Here’s how our poll came out: 

Hillary Clinton (46%)

Barack Obama (40%)Other (5%)Undecided (9%) The poll sampled 424 likely voters in the Feb. 5 Alabama Republican primary, for a margin of error of plus or minus 5%. The data have been weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation. This race may hinge on whether Obama can inspire a hyper-turnout of black voters.  We see evidence that the Clinton campaign is spending time and money even in states where they trail badly – such as Georgia – probably to stretch Obama’s resources too thin for him to win enough marquee primaries on Tuesday to make a difference. Bill Clinton is in Atlanta this weekend, where Hillary Clinton trails Obama by double-digits.

   
   

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