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Open Seat Contests Mostly Under Funded
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
July 24, 2008 — Democratic candidates for the South’s seven open congressional seats are positioned to do well, but most have not yet built a big enough war chest to finance a strong campaign. Republicans are solid in a couple of districts, but not in some others. Part of the weak financing in both parties is attributable to costly primary battles which have depleted candidate coffers. Six of the seven open seats are currently held by Republicans, who -- frustrated by losing their majority in the House -- are retiring, thus giving the Democrats more opportunities for gains. There is one currently held Democratic open seat, Alabama’s 5th District. Details: Alabama 2 (Dothan, etc.) State Rep. Jay Love (R), fresh off a divisive, expensive primary runoff, has $91,000 on hand to Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright’s (D) $281,000. Both are vying for the seat of retiring US Rep. Terry Everett (R). Love, who has the active support of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and who also has personal money, should be able to close the gap. Bright, who has aired his first TV spot, so far has a middling pot of cash on hand, but isn’t likely to be under funded; he’s a favorite of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). Leans Republican. Alabama 5 (Huntsville, etc.) The GOP has been waiting for years -- since at least 1994 -- for US Rep. Bud Cramer’s (D) retirement, when it planned to elect a congressman in this Republican-leaning district (Bush 60% in 2004). But Cramer has stepped down in a Democratic year and his party has a strong nominee in state Sen. Parker Griffith (D), who has a healthy $352,000 on hand, to Wayne Parker’s (R) $73,000. Parker had to finance a tough primary and a runoff; in catching up, he’ll have NRCC help. Leans Democratic. Florida 15 (Space Coast, etc.) When US Rep. Dave Weldon (R) announced his retirement, the Democrats weren’t able to come up with a strong contender in this somewhat competitive district (Bush 57%). For the GOP, successful businessman (real estate) Bill Posey has $310,000 on hand, his primary foe Alan Bergman has $10,000, Democrat Steve Blythe has $9,000 and independent Frank Zilaitis has $2,000. Safe Republican. Kentucky 2 (Bowling Green, etc.) In the battle to succeed retiring US Rep. Ron Lewis (R), state Sen. Brett Guthrie (R) has $661,000 on hand, far more than state Sen. David Boswell (D, who had a costly primary battle and has $45,000. Guthrie is the choice of the Kentucky GOP establishment. Boswell, though a highly touted campaigner, is way behind in fundraising. Likely Republican. Louisiana 4 (Shreveport, etc.) US Rep. Jim McCrery’s (R) retirement announcement set off a scramble among three well-financed GOPers: Physician John Fleming has $359,000 on hand; businessman Chris Gorman has $352,000; and lawyer Jeff Thompson, McCrery’s choice, has $200,000. The primary is September 6; the runoff on October 4. The top Democrat is District Attorney Paul Carmouche with $389,000; he has minor primary opposition. Bush got 59% here in 2004. Toss-up all around. Mississippi 3 (Meridian, etc.) US Rep. “Chip” Pickering (R) is retiring and the GOP is in great shape to keep the seat. Rankin County Republican Chairman Greg Harper has $213,000 on hand; cattle broker Joel Gill (D) has $2,000. Bush got 65% here in 2004. Safe Republican. Virginia 11 (Fairfax County) Powerful and influential US Rep. Tom Davis (R) kept this seat in the Republican column despite a growing Democratic trend here. With Davis stepping down, the battle for the seat will be hard-fought. Fairfax County Board Chairman Gerry Connolly (D), who won a hard-fought primary battle, has $275,000. Wealthy but politically unknown businessman (property inspection) Keith Fimian (R) has $1,039,000. A June 30 poll taken for Connolly by Lake Research Partners showed him with 52% to Fimian’s 21%. In 2004, Bush got 50%, Kerry 49%. Obama has big plans for Virginia, which could affect the race. Likely Democratic. |
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