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New poll: Deal surges, Isakson romps

By Dick Pettys
InsiderAdvantage Georgia

September 28, 2010

Despite the “hits” he has taken in the media over the past week or so, Republican gubernatorial nominee Nathan Deal is leading the race with former Gov. Roy Barnes, his Democratic opponent in November, the latest InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll shows.

At the same time, Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson is firmly in control of his battle with Democratic challenger Michael Thurmond.

The poll was conducted Monday, Sept. 27, among 412 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the November election. The survey utilized the firm’s standard IVR telephone system, which accurately forecast the winners of both the primary and the runoff. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. 

The result:

Nathan Deal (R), 45 percent

Roy Barnes (D), 37 percent

Johns Monds (L), 5 percent

No Opinion, 13 percent


InsiderAdvantage CEO and political analyst Matt Towery said the Barnes camp is losing support among critically important demographic groups. The poll shows independents have now shifted to Deal 46% to 19% (with Monds getting 9% and the rest undecided.) Among white voters, Barnes is now receiving only a 23% share. The two are statistically tied among women, but men are going overwhelmingly in favor of Deal.

“Roy Barnes has remained competitive in this race because of the many questions and issues which have arisen related to Nathan Deal’s finances and ethical issues. However, it appears that no matter how powerful the story is, that particular issue has hit a brick wall. For Barnes to have a chance to win this race, he must convince independents and some Republicans that he is the more conservative and reasonable candidate in the race. As for Deal, it appears his only real concern at this point is whether he can win this race without a runoff. A runoff would clearly favor the Republican, but a runoff is, indeed, a jump ball in political races that no candidate wants to have to deal with.”

In the U.S. Senate race, it is:

Isakson (R), 61 percent

Thurmond (D), 29 percent

Donovan (L), 3 percent

No Opinion, 7 percent


Towery:

“The Isakson results give us a good idea of just how much this survey is on the mark. He has run the best TV commercials of the political season and his results indicate that in a vacuum, Georgia has become a large Republican state as far as this election cycle is concerned. President Obama’s continued drop in the polls is tugging on every Democratic candidate statewide and even local candidates.”

   
   

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